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Reliability of weapon systems through periods of storage dormancy has long been a significant concern to military organizations. The trend in missile systems over previous decades has been toward greater sophistication, complexity, and longer periods of dormancy while in transportation and storage.

Consideration of these makes assessment and prediction of missile reliability increasingly relevant to tactical outcomes, as many missile components are susceptible to environmental degradation in uncontrolled storage, handling and transportation conditions. To achieve better maintenance and repair planning, supply chain upgrades and system modifications, the Air Force required methods to accurately predict wear-out of dormant missile line replaceable units in the absence of remedial action.

TRI Austin develpped validated, accurate prediction models, algorithms and software to assess and predict reliabilities of dormant aging cruise missile systems based on limited prior line replaceable unit maintenance and test data. We developed preliminary statistical methodologies to estimate LRU reliabilities and prospective algorithms to predict future maintenance requirements. These were further tested and validated for predictive capabilities.

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